Today, I want to discuss about the current Japanese economic and politic situation.

Ambassador Kennedy Meets Japan’s Prime Minister Abe (10956898194)
In 1990s and 2000s, Japan had suffered from long economic recession.
Some Japanese economists and politicians thought it was because the deflation.

In 2012, the prime minister Mr. Abe, stated that he would implement the policy called "Abenomics".
For the first step, BOJ (aka Bank of Japan) decided to print quite much money to buy the bonds and stocks.
This is called as "the credit ease from the another dimension".

As the result of the credit ease, the stock price was raised quite much higher.
So the politicians thought that Japan is not in the recession anymore.
So Mr. Abe decided to raise the consumption tax from 5% to 8% in the April of 2014.
And he stated he would raise it to 10% in the October of 2015 "if the economic weather would be good".

As the result of the tax raising, the GOP (aka Gross National Product) was declined so badly.
The price of commodities had been raised, but it didn't mean that the deflation had been over.
Instead, it meant that the price of petroleum and the other imported raw material were raised because of the weaken Yen.

The rich men who owned stock earned, but the poor people's salary had not been raised yet.
I think that the decision to raise the consumption tax was mistake --- at least, it was too early.

The Japanese MOF (aka Ministry of Finance) stated that we still need to raise the consumption tax.

The first reason is that the Japanese financial administration is not so healthy.
They say Japan issued too much bonds and borrows too much money so it can hardly pay the interest.

But the Japanese bond is so unique --- much different from U. S. bond or Greek bond.
The Japanese bond is sold by Japanese people.

This seems quite funny situation to me.
Let's think of a family.
The father borrowed some money from his kids.
And he stated "I would decrease the allowance to you because I got to pay you back the interest."

The second reason that MOF wants to raise the consumption tax is that:
"In Japan, the old people are increasing. So we got to raise the tax to use the old people's welfare."

But I'm opposite to it.
The reason why the old people are increasing is that the Japanese medication is quite good.
So the current Japanese old people --- including me --- are not so old.
They are much healthier and more sound than the prior generation.
So they can work hard longer, so they don't need too much welfare.

In addition, it seems funny that "we need to raise the consumption tax to use the old people's welfare."
Because the old people themselves must pay the consumption tax too.

The third reason is that:
"We need to reduce the corporation tax. If we don't, the companies would run away from Japan and go abroad."
Is it true?

The U.S. government doesn't impose the federal consumption tax.
(Some states impose it.)
And the corporation tax is higher than Japan.
But I don't think the companies (Apple, Microsoft, Goodle etc.) ran away from U.S.

Anyway, the raise of consumption tax in the last April worsen the Japanese economic weather and Abenomics lost the good reputation.
So BOJ issued another ease of credit in the last October.
The Yen turned weaker and the stock price turned higher.

And the prime minister Abe stated that:
"I would postpone the raise of consumption tax originally planned in the October of 2015 to the April of 2017.
And I would hold a snap election of the lower house of the diet 'to elicit the public opinion'."
But what is the public opinion for?

I don't really think that he should hold the snap election.
Because there is the sentence written in the law that "you can postpone the raising of the consumption tax if the economic weather is bad."
The GOP was declined, so the economic weather is already bad, so no one wants the raise of the tax, so he don't need to hold a snap election.
I think the public opinion is unified.

In the last few years, Mr. Abe had decided not only the Abenomics but also decided many drastic decision.
He set the state secrecy bill.
He decided to participate TPP (the Japanese LDP (aka the Liberal Democratic Party) used to state that they are opposite to it.)
And his biggest decision was that he "re-interpreted" the Constitution Article 9 to enable SDF (aka Self Defence Force) to participate the war.

Anyway, I think he would win the election and the stock price would be higher.
But I'm afraid that he would say "We obtained the public opinion to amend the Constitution" etc.